DEMOGRAPHIC AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITIONS OF RAPE AND SUICIDE IN JAMAICA, 1970–2024: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND PUBLIC HEALTH DETERMINANTS

Author: Paul Andrew Bourne, PhD

ABSTRACT

This study examines the demographic and epidemiological transition of rape and suicide in Jamaica between 1970 and 2024, exploring how patterns of gender, age, region, and socio-economic context have shaped the prevalence and characteristics of these public health and social issues. The analysis employed a mixed-methods design, integrating quantitative data from the Jamaica Constabulary Force, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, and the Ministry of Health with qualitative insights from published research, policy documents, and regional comparative studies. Findings reveal a significant shift in both rape and suicide trends: rape incidents increased through the 1980s and 1990s before showing declines after 2010, coinciding with stronger legislative frameworks and advocacy, while suicide rates rose gradually across the decades, with higher prevalence among males and rural populations. Age-specific analysis demonstrates that younger females, particularly those aged 15–24, were disproportionately affected by rape, whereas suicide was most common among middle-aged and elderly males. Both phenomena were correlated with socio-economic challenges, including unemployment, poverty, and community-level violence, underscoring structural determinants of vulnerability. Comparisons with global data indicate that Jamaica’s rape and suicide trends reflect broader transitional patterns in low- and middle-income countries but are also influenced by unique historical and cultural factors. The study concludes that integrated approaches are needed, combining public health strategies, social support, and legislative reform to address the intersecting drivers of sexual violence and self-harm.

Keywords: Jamaica, rape, suicide, demographic transition, epidemiological transition, socio-economic determinants, public health

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