A RENEWED EU STRATEGY FOR ERITREA, ETHIOPIA, HORN OF AFRICA AND RED SEA STABILITY

Author: Christian Ilcus

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Horn of Africa is entering a period of renewed geopolitical fragility. Relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have deteriorated following the collapse of trust after the Tigray war, disputes over Red Sea access, and rising military tensions around the Eritrean port of Assab. At the same time, the European Union has strategic interests in regional peace, maritime security, migration management, trade corridors, and conflict prevention in the Red Sea basin.

This memorandum argues that the EU should pursue a pragmatic strategy centered on:

  • Preventing renewed interstate war between Eritrea and Ethiopia;
  • Supporting a structured reconciliation framework;
  • Facilitating mutually beneficial economic integration;
  • Promoting negotiated Ethiopian commercial access to Eritrean ports under Eritrean sovereignty;
  • Anchoring regional cooperation within African Union-led diplomacy.

The EU should avoid securitized or coercive approaches and instead use infrastructure financing, trade incentives, diplomatic guarantees, and phased confidence-building measures.

REFERENCES

  1. Abbink, J. (Ed.). (2003–2009). The Eritrea–Ethiopia war and its aftermath (various edited volumes).
  2. Baadiyow, A. A. (2017). Making sense of Somali history. Adonis & Abbey Publishers.
  3. Bereketeab, R. (2000). Eritrea: The making of a nation, 1890–1991 (later editions).
  4. Bereketeab, R. (Ed.). (2017). State building and national identity reconstruction in the Horn of Africa. Springer.
  5. Bradbury, M. (2008). Becoming Somaliland. James Currey.
  6. De Guttry, A., Post, H. H. G., & Venturini, G. (Eds.). (2021). The 1998–2000 Eritrea–Ethiopia war and its aftermath in international legal perspective: From the 2000 Algiers agreements to the 2018 peace agreement. Springer. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-94-6265-439-6
  7. Dessie, Y. (2024). Ethio-Eritrean relation: From jubilant liaison to paroxysm hostility since 2018. Journal of Asian and African Studies.
  8. European External Action Service. (2011–2020s). Horn of Africa strategy papers and updates. European Union.
  9. European Union. (Various years). EU crisis group briefings on Ethiopia–Eritrea border tensions. European Commission.
  10. European Union. (Various years). EU election observation and stability reports: Ethiopia. European Commission.
  11. Ethiopian Institute for Strategic Studies. (2026). Challenges in Ethiopia: Ethiopia’s strategic calculus in the Horn of Africa and related analyses. https://ethiopianinstitute.org/category/challenges-in-ethiopia/
  12. Höhne, M. V. (2015). Between Somaliland and Puntland: Marginalization, militarization and conflicting political visions. Rift Valley Institute.
  13. Ingiriis, M. H. (2016). The Somali revolution: Nationalism, communism, and the struggle for Somali statehood. Rowman & Littlefield.Omar, M. O. (1992). The road to zero: Somalia’s self-destruction. Haan Associates.
  14. International Crisis Group. (2000s–2020s). Ethiopia–Eritrea border conflict reports and post-2018 assessments.
  15. Jacquin-Berdal, D., & Plaut, M. (Eds.). (2007). Unfinished business: Ethiopia and Eritrea at war. Oxford University Press. https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article/106/425/731/48325
  16. Mufti, D. (2025, July 28). Transcending the Ethio-Eritrean conundrum: A vision for a better tomorrow. Eritrea Focus. https://eritrea-focus.org/transcending-the-ethio-eritrean-conundrum-a-vision-for-a-better-tomorrow/
  17. Picard, D., & Yihdego, Z. (2019–2020). Ethiopia and Eritrea: A new relationship based upon treaty obligations, international law and mutual trust. International Journal of African Studies.
  18. Redie, B. (2000). Eritrea: The making of a nation, 1890–1991. (Revised editions).
  19. United Nations. (2000–2008). UNMEE: United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea reports. UN Security Council.
  20. United Nations. (2002–2009). Eritrea–Ethiopia Claims Commission rulings. Permanent Court of Arbitration.
  21. United Nations. (2009–2018). Reports of the Eritrea sanctions monitoring group. UN Security Council.
  22. Clausewitz, C. von. (1984). On war (M. Howard & P. Paret, Trans.). Princeton University Press. (Original work published 1832)
  23. Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization, 49(3), 379–414. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300033324
  24. Schelling, T. C. (1960). The strategy of conflict. Harvard University Press.
  25. Lewis, I. M. (2002). A modern history of the Somali: Nation and state in the Horn of Africa (4th ed.). James Currey.
  26. Lewis, I. M. (2008). Understanding Somalia and Somaliland: Culture, history, society. Columbia University Press.
  27. Jimale, A. A. (Ed.). (1995). The invention of Somalia. The Red Sea Press.
  28. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The tragedy of great power politics. W. W. Norton & Company.
  29. Mukhtar, M. H. (2003). Historical dictionary of Somalia. Scarecrow Press.
  30. Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167–214. https://doi.org/10.2307/2009958
  31. Bueno de Mesquita, B. (1981). The war trap. Yale University Press.
  32. Lake, D. A. (2010). Hierarchy in international relations. Cornell University Press.
  33. Powell, R. (2006). War as a commitment problem. International Organization, 60(1), 169–203. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060061
  34. Reiter, D. (2003). Exploring the bargaining model of war. Perspectives on Politics, 1(1), 27–43. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592703000033
  35. Renders, M. (2012). Consider Somaliland: State-building with traditional leaders and institutions. Brill.
  36. Walls, M. (2014). A Somali nation-state: History, culture and Somaliland’s political transition. Ponte Invisible.
  37. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/ethiopia/european-union-and-ethiopia_en#95614