A RENEWED EU STRATEGY FOR ERITREA, ETHIOPIA, HORN OF AFRICA AND RED SEA STABILITY

Author: Christian Ilcus

ABSTRACT 

This article examines the renewed geopolitical fragility in the Horn of Africa, particularly focusing on the deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia following the Tigray war, disputes over Red Sea access, and escalating military tensions surrounding the Eritrean port of Assab. The research question addresses how the European Union (EU) can effectively engage in the region to promote stability and cooperation. The methodology involves a qualitative analysis of the current geopolitical landscape and the EU’s strategic interests in regional peace, maritime security, migration management, trade corridors, and conflict prevention in the Red Sea basin. The findings suggest that the EU should adopt a pragmatic strategy aimed at preventing renewed interstate conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, supporting a structured reconciliation framework, facilitating mutually beneficial economic integration, promoting negotiated Ethiopian access to Eritrean ports under Eritrean sovereignty, and anchoring regional cooperation within African Union-led diplomacy. The article concludes that the EU should avoid securitized or coercive approaches, advocating instead for the use of infrastructure financing, trade incentives, diplomatic guarantees, and phased confidence-building measures to foster a stable and cooperative regional environment and amidst the building of a certain regional order in Europe’s adjacent near abroad.

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