International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Review

DIGITAL CONNECTIVITY AND MIGRATION DYNAMICS: THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL MEDIA USE ON NET MIGRATION IN JAMAICA, 1970–2024

Author: Paul Andrew Bourne, PhD

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of social media adoption on net migration from Jamaica between 1970 and 2024, taking into account structural, social, and technological factors. Using secondary time-series data, the analysis examines the effects of social media penetration, GDP per capita, unemployment, and homicide rates on annual migration flows. Descriptive statistics indicate persistent net outflows across the study period, with peaks corresponding to economic crises and heightened insecurity. Social media adoption, which expanded rapidly after 2000, emerges as a significant moderating factor, reducing migration outflows and altering the timing of emigration responses. Pearson correlations reveal a negative association between social media use and net migration (r = -0.42, p < .05), while unemployment and homicide rates exhibit strong positive correlations. OLS regression analyses confirm that social media use significantly predicts lower net migration (β = -0.21, p < .05) after controlling for structural variables, whereas GDP per capita shows weaker, non-significant effects. ARIMAX modelling highlights lagged effects, indicating that increased social media adoption in one year corresponds with reduced migration in subsequent years. This matter is consistent with households leveraging digital connectivity to maintain diaspora networks and explore virtual economic opportunities. Decade-level trends further suggest that the stabilising effect of social media became most pronounced during the 2000s and 2010s, despite persistent structural pressures. The findings underscore the importance of considering technological and informational factors alongside traditional push–pull determinants in understanding migration dynamics. Policymakers are encouraged to invest in digital infrastructure and diaspora engagement initiatives as tools for retaining human capital and promoting sustainable development.

Keywords: Jamaica, net migration, social media, digital connectivity, push–pull factors, time-series analysis

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